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Ethereum slides below consolidation as ETF outflows return
Ethereum price fell sharply after breaking down from the $2,800 consolidation zone, driven by renewed spot ETH ETF outflows and risk-averse positioning across derivatives markets. At press time, ETH was trading around $2,739, off roughly 8% in 24 hours, with weekly and monthly losses accumulating as volatility returned to the second-largest crypto market.
Key takeaway
- Spot ETH ETFs recorded net redemptions totaling $155 million on Jan. 29, a major headwind for short-term demand.
- Derivatives metrics show increased futures turnover and falling open interest, signaling position repairs and long liquidations rather than fresh leverage.
- Technical indicators point to growing downside pressure unless ETH reclaims the $2,950–$3,100 resistance corridor.
Flows and derivatives: sellers close positions
Spot ETF outflows were the prominent catalyst for the latest decline. Data from SoSoValue showed $155 million exited U.S. spot ETH ETFs in a single session, with Fidelity’s FETH and BlackRock’s ETHA suffering the largest redemptions. Weekly flows remain negative, which reduces steady institutional demand and can force issuers to sell ETH to meet redemptions.
Derivatives confirm a market cutting risk. CoinGlass data reported Ethereum futures volume jumped about 55% to $90.55 billion, while open interest dropped roughly 11% to $34.29 billion. That mix—rising volume but declining open interest—typically reflects heavy turnover and long liquidation events as traders close positions rather than add new exposure.
Lower demand from U.S. traders has been visible in the Coinbase Premium Index, which has cooled, keeping ETH trapped in narrow ranges until the recent break. Higher 24-hour volumes (up 81% to $42.8 billion) indicate active selling pressure during the move down.
Technical picture: range break and downside bias
Ethereum’s slide below the $2,800–$2,900 zone confirms a breakdown from a weeks-long consolidation. Short-term structure remains bearish: ETH has been printing lower highs and recent rebounds faded around $3,050–$3,100 where selling pressure has been persistent.
Price sits under short-term moving averages, with the middle Bollinger Band close to $3,070 acting as a ceiling. The bands are opening downwards, signaling expanding volatility to the downside after the range collapse. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering in the low 40s shows weakening momentum—bearish, but not yet capitulative—leaving room for further declines before buyers step in.
Immediate technical support aligns around $2,700, near recent intraday lows and the lower Bollinger Band. A daily close back above $2,950–$3,000 would be required to invalidate the breakdown and refocus attention on $3,100–$3,200. Until that occurs, most rallies are likely to be corrective rather than the start of a sustained uptrend.
What traders are watching
- Spot ETF flows: continued outflows would keep selling pressure elevated.
- Derivatives open interest: a rebound could signal fresh leverage, while further declines imply continued de-risking.
- Key technical levels: $2,700 support and $2,950–$3,100 resistance band.
- On-chain and network news: security-related headlines and UX concerns can amplify volatility by undermining investor confidence.
Risk factors and broader context
Beyond flows and charts, network headlines have weighed on sentiment. Discussions about quantum-resistant upgrades highlight long-term security planning, while reports of a possible poisoning attack stirred fresh user-safety concerns. These stories do not threaten core operations today but add to a risk-off backdrop when trader confidence is fragile.
For market participants, the near-term strategy is clear: watch ETF flows and derivatives metrics closely—these signals have been decisive in shaping recent price moves. Traders focused on technical trading should respect the current downside bias, managing risk until price retakes the key $2,950–$3,100 zone on a daily close.
Ethereum daily chart.
Overall, the combination of ETF redemptions, derivatives deleveraging, and technical breakdown suggests a cautious outlook for ETH in the short term. Recovery will likely require steadier inflows from institutional channels and a sustained reclaim of the immediate resistance band to shift sentiment back toward risk-on behavior.
Source: crypto
Comments
coinpilot
Is this even true? 155M outflows in one day sounds huge but is it real or just rebalancing? Feels like panic selling, hope it bounces tho
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