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Solana steady under $200 after volatile crash
Solana (SOL) traded just beneath the $200 mark as investors tiptoe back into the market following a sharp pullback. After sliding to a weekly low of $173 during the Oct. 10 crash, SOL rebounded to roughly $196 at the time of reporting, recovering about 8% in 24 hours. Despite the bounce, SOL’s price remains roughly 14% down on the week and 19% lower month-to-date, representing a 32% decline from January highs near $293.
On-chain and trading metrics paint mixed signals
Trading volumes have shown signs of renewed activity even as on-chain participation cools. Solana spot volume hit around $12 billion over the past 24 hours, a 14% increase from the previous day, while derivatives trading has surged: futures volume climbed 36% to $32.4 billion and open interest rose by 6%, according to CoinGlass. These upticks indicate traders are cautiously reopening positions in futures and spot markets after the crash.
DEX volume and TVL have retreated
On-chain data tells a more conservative story. DefiLlama reports that Solana’s decentralized exchange (DEX) volume slid from $8.37 billion on Oct. 10 to $6.43 billion on Oct. 11 and further to $5.84 billion on Oct. 12. Total value locked (TVL) also dipped from about $12.5 billion to near $10 billion before edging back above $11 billion. That divergence — rising exchange activity but weakening DEX metrics — suggests liquidity and retail participation may be colder than exchange flows imply.
Stablecoin supply climbs as capital sidelines
Despite softer DEX metrics, Solana’s stablecoin market capitalization rose roughly 8% in the last week to about $16.2 billion. The increasing stablecoin supply on Solana indicates capital is waiting on the sidelines for clearer price direction or macro catalysts before redeploying into DeFi and trading.
Key catalysts that could steer SOL’s next leg
Several short-term events could trigger renewed momentum for SOL. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission will decide on a potential spot SOL ETF between Oct. 28 and Nov. 15. Predictive markets like Polymarket currently price the approval odds at roughly 90%. If a spot SOL ETF is greenlit, institutional inflows could mirror the large-scale capital rotation seen around Ethereum’s ETF approval.
On-chain upgrades also matter. The Alpenglow upgrade, slated for later this year, aims to reduce transaction finality to roughly 150 milliseconds, improving throughput for trading and DeFi applications. Separately, Jump Crypto’s Firedancer validator client is scheduled for public testing in late October; if successful, it could bolster network reliability and attract fresh DeFi liquidity to Solana.
Technical outlook: consolidation with defined risk levels
Technically, SOL is consolidating below the key $200 resistance. The 14-day relative strength index sits near 43, signaling neutral momentum rather than an overbought or oversold condition. Short-term moving averages in the $210–$220 band are acting as immediate resistance. Meanwhile, longer-term moving averages — the 100- and 200-day lines — provide a support base around $186–$198.
Solana daily chart
If SOL holds the $185–$190 range and can overcome mid-$200 resistance, buyers may push toward earlier highs. Conversely, a failure to defend $170–$180 could prompt deeper consolidation and risk testing lower structural supports.
What traders and DeFi users should watch
- ETF decision window (Oct. 28–Nov. 15): a favorable ruling could drive institutional inflows and lift SOL and Solana DeFi metrics.
- Alpenglow and Firedancer rollouts: network upgrades that improve transaction finality and validator performance could attract on-chain activity and liquidity.
- DEX volume and TVL trends: falling DEX activity despite rising exchange volumes suggests capital is still cautious.
- Stablecoin cap and futures open interest: increasing stablecoin supply and higher derivatives activity can precede major directional moves.
For traders and crypto investors, the current phase is consolidation rather than trend confirmation. Monitoring ETF newsflow, upgrade timelines, and weekly on-chain metrics will be essential to gauge whether Solana’s next move is a sustainable recovery or continued range-bound weakness.
Source: crypto
Comments
fundarc
Wait 90% ETF odds? Feels optimistic. Futures/open interest spiking while DEX and TVL drop, who's really buying the dip? skeptical, tbh
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