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Bitwise 2026 outlook: ETF demand to reshape crypto markets
Asset manager Bitwise has released a detailed 2026 outlook predicting fresh all-time highs for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana, driven primarily by accelerating institutional adoption and a wave of exchange-traded funds (ETFs). The firm argues that traditional four-year crypto cycles are giving way to fund-driven flows, stablecoin expansion, and tokenization — forces that could materially change supply-demand dynamics across major on-chain assets.
ETF flows set to absorb new issuance
Bitwise expects ETFs to buy more than 100% of newly issued Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana over the forecast horizon. The report estimates roughly 166,000 BTC, 960,000 ETH, and 23 million SOL entering circulation, while ETF purchases could exceed those supply additions. That imbalance — where fund demand outpaces fresh issuance — is highlighted as a central catalyst for upward price pressure across the top-layer tokens.
Institutional interest, Bitwise says, will be amplified as major financial firms deepen crypto offerings. Banks and wealth managers such as Citi, Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo, and Merrill Lynch are cited as important on-ramps that will broaden access to spot ETFs and accelerate capital flows on-chain. As a result, volatility in major cryptocurrencies could decline, with Bitcoin already showing lower volatility versus some large tech stocks during 2025.
Macro, halving and leverage dynamics
Bitwise expects Bitcoin to decouple from the historical four-year halving-driven cycle as macro forces — interest rates and leverage cycles — play a larger role. The firm projects that broader macro liquidity and ETF-led demand will make Bitcoin less prone to the sharp boom-bust swings tied strictly to halving events.
Ethereum, Solana, stablecoins and tokenization
Bitwise is bullish on Ethereum and Solana, particularly if legislative and regulatory clarity arrives — the report specifically notes potential upside tied to passage of the CLARITY Act. Both chains are positioned to benefit from stablecoin expansion, tokenization of assets, and increased institutional tooling built on smart-contract platforms.
Stablecoins: growth and geopolitical risk
The report anticipates significant stablecoin market growth, including tokenized versions of fiat currencies like the US dollar. While this expansion will be a major vector for on-chain liquidity and institutional adoption, Bitwise warns that one or two countries could point to stablecoins as contributors to turbulence in their local currencies — a geopolitical risk that may invite regulatory responses.
Crypto equities, endowments and on-chain vaults
Beyond spot tokens, Bitwise forecasts outperformance from crypto-focused equities versus traditional tech stocks. The Bitwise Crypto Innovators Index — which tracks firms building infrastructure and services for digital assets — has reportedly outpaced broader tech over the past three years, and Bitwise expects that trend to continue on the back of revenue growth, M&A activity, and improving regulatory clarity.
The firm also predicts a surge in institutional allocations: over 100 US crypto-linked ETFs could list under new SEC standards, a phenomenon Bitwise dubs “ETF-palooza” in 2026. Approximately half of Ivy League endowments are expected to have crypto exposure by then, and on-chain vault assets under management are forecast to at least double as institutional custody and governance tools mature.
What this means for investors
For investors, the report signals a market transitioning from retail-driven cycles to institutional market structure: greater ETF liquidity, lower volatility for large-cap tokens, and stronger linkages between tokenization, stablecoins, and real-world asset flows. While upside scenarios look compelling, Bitwise reminds market participants to account for regulatory shifts and geopolitical risks — particularly around stablecoins and cross-border capital flows.
Overall, Bitwise’s 2026 thesis centers on ETF-driven demand, expanding on-chain infrastructure, and tokenization as the prime movers likely to push Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana toward new highs within the next 18 months to two years.
Source: crypto
Comments
coinpilot
If ETFs really buy >100% of new supply then BTC/ETH moon? but is that realistic longterm, regs will hit first, curious tho
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