5 Minutes
Macro Analyst Luke Gromen Lowers Near-Term Optimism for Bitcoin
Global macro strategist Luke Gromen has shifted to a more cautious stance on Bitcoin, warning that the top crypto may be vulnerable and could fall into the $40,000 area in 2026. While he continues to endorse the long-term idea that fiat debasement favors scarce assets, he now argues that macro dynamics, technicals, and rising talk of quantum risk argue for tactical caution with BTC positions.
From Debasement Thesis to Tactical Downsizing
Gromen remains a proponent of the debasement trade thesis, which holds that rising public debt and fiscal pressure push investors away from fiat toward scarce stores of value. Historically that trade has favored assets such as gold, certain commodities, and Bitcoin. But in a recent RiskReversal podcast appearance he said gold and selected equities are currently doing a better job expressing that macro view than Bitcoin or many other risk assets.
He underscored that, despite staying structurally bullish on long-term currency debasement, investors should potentially size down BTC allocations right now because of deteriorating risk-reward in the near term. That view represents a notable tone change for a strategist who has often lumped Bitcoin and gold together as hedges against inflation.
Technicals, Performance vs Gold, and New Risk Narratives
Gromen cited several concrete reasons for his caution: Bitcoin has failed to make fresh highs against gold, key moving averages have broken, and conversations about quantum computing risk have shifted from theoretical to a perceived medium-term threat in some investor circles. These developments, he says, make Bitcoin more susceptible to downside when macro headlines turn negative.
Bitcoin dropped below $90,000 over the weekend
Market Reaction and Analyst Pushback
Not all crypto analysts agree with Gromen's near-term bear case. Bitcoin-focused researchers and onchain analysts have been quick to push back, saying the argument leans too heavily on narrative and broken moving averages rather than deep blockchain fundamentals. Critics argue that calling out lagging performance versus gold is a common way to justify selling into weakness instead of identifying a genuine market top.
Some commentators described Gromen's case as effectively a trade on investor perception, particularly around quantum risk, rather than evidence that Bitcoin's cryptography is imminently compromised. Many cryptographers still view practical quantum attacks on Bitcoin as distant, but the discussion has nonetheless impacted sentiment.
Source: Sina BI Report
Spot ETF Flows, Debasement and a Nuanced Picture
Market flows paint a more nuanced picture than a simple collapse thesis. Following heavy outflows in November, US spot Bitcoin ETFs returned to modest net inflows in December, suggesting that some institutional demand remains. That flow data, combined with the persistent macro narrative of rising debt-to-GDP and potential fiat weakening, keeps longer-term bullish arguments for Bitcoin relevant.
Even so, Gromen's repositioning highlights a practical lesson: macro-friendly investors may still reduce exposure to BTC tactically when risk narratives and technical indicators align against it. This does not necessarily mean abandoning the idea that scarce digital assets will play a role in preserving purchasing power over long time horizons.
What This Means for Traders and Long-Term Investors
For traders, Gromen's call reinforces the importance of watching macro indicators, ETF flows, and technical levels such as moving averages. Short- to medium-term risk management, position sizing, and liquidity planning become essential if volatility increases or sentiment shifts further.
For long-term holders, the debasement thesis remains a central rationale for maintaining exposure to Bitcoin alongside gold and other real assets. But Gromen's comments are a reminder that timing and tactical allocation can materially affect returns, especially when headlines around AI, labor data, or emerging technology risks like quantum computing create new uncertainty.
Bottom Line
Luke Gromen's more cautious near-term view of Bitcoin underscores how macro narratives, technicals, and emergent risk discussions can alter positioning even among long-term macro bulls. While he still accepts the broader debasement story that benefits scarce assets, his tactical downgrade is a signal for investors to reassess sizing and risk amid mixed flows and evolving investor sentiment. The market will be watching whether spot ETF inflows continue and whether quantum risk chatter subsides or becomes a more tangible factor in institutional allocation decisions.
Source: cointelegraph
Comments
coinpilot
Is this even true? Gromen's pivot reads like narrative timing, not hardchain proof. Quantum fear seems overplayed, but if ETF flows flip, BTC could get ugly…
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